Salvaging Justin Smoak's Season

Though it is mid-May and the Mariners have already played 38 games, the season is still relatively young, so those players who have started slowly still have time to salvage their seasons—at least from a statistical standpoint. Justin Smoak is one of the Mariners’ slow starters. He came into tonight’s game batting just .208/.254/.315 with 4 homeruns and 12 RBIs.

Mariner fans anxiously wait for Smoak to develop into the hitter they expected as the centerpiece in the Cliff Lee trade. We have seen glimpses of promise, but personal tragedies and injuries have, to date, interrupted any opportunity for Smoak to find his rhythm. Many fans set their sights on this season for his breakthrough, labeling it a “make-or-break year.” That has not happened yet, but it is not too late for Smoak to still put together his best MLB season.

Smoak has played in 34 of the Mariners 38 games to date, accruing 130 ABs. If he continues to play at that rate the remainder of this season, he will appear in roughly 145 games and have 554 ABs. So, for Smoak to end this season batting .300, for example, he will have to notch 166 total hits. That means, Smoak will have to bat roughly .327 the rest of the way (139-424) to achieve that mark. In other words, to bat .300 this season, Smoak does not need to bat .700 or an outrageously high average. He needs to hit .327, and while unlikely, weirder things have happened.

But, nobody really expects Smoak to hit .300 this season. To date, his career high was the .234 he hit last year. To match his career high, then, Smoak only needs to bat .243 (103-424) the remainder of the season. But, Mariner fans—and presumably the Mariner organization—expect more from a player they expect to be a franchise cornerstone for years to come. We need to see real improvement, something we can hang our hat on as we look toward the future. So, what would Smoak have to do the rest of the way to bat .265 overall?

For Smoak to hit .265 this season, he will need to bat .283 (120-424) the rest of the way. Again, this kind of performance is not impossible. We saw a healthy Smoak hit well early last season, when he batted .284 in 22 games in March and April. Then, after coming back from injury late last season he hit .301 in 22 games in September and October. So, Smoak is certainly capable of putting up these kinds of offensive numbers over an extended period.

As Smoak physically projects as an athletic power hitter, and as he is not eligible for free agency until 2017, the Mariners will give him every opportunity to play through his struggles. Switch hitters often take more time to develop, so perhaps the organization’s patience will ultimately pay dividends. But, if Smoak continues to weakly roll over pitches and hover in the low .200s with little power, fans’ already-thin patience with Smoak will only further diminish.

Fans need to bear in mind that Smoak can still put up career high offensive marks. He can have his best season to date. He has hit .400 over the last 7 days, so maybe he is coming around. Maybe he can bat .283 the remainder of this season and notch a promising .265 AVG in 2012.

Can Blake Beavan be the next Doug Fister?

Tonight, Doug Fister returned to Safeco Field as a member of the Tigers, to take on the Mariners and Blake Beavan. Beavan only worked three innings, after wearing a Miguel Cabrera laser off his pitching elbow. But, watching Beavan and Fister work, one could not help but notice some similarities between the two.

First, they are both tall right-handers, both throw over the top and have similar “stuff.” At this point, Fister is more polished, and has demonstrated his ability to generate groundballs. But, could Blake Beavan, with only 20 appearances at the MLB level, develop into another Doug Fister? Let’s compare their numbers to see how Fister’s numbers compared to Beavans’ after 20 games.

Through 20 games, all starts, Beavan has a career 6-9 mark and a 4.31 ERA. He’s worked 127.1 innings, allowing an opposing .276 AVG. He strikes out 3.9 batters per nine innings, walks just 1.2 hitters per nine innings, a 2.89 K/BB ratio. Beavan’s opposing AVG of .276 exceeds the average MLB opposing batting average of .254, but his low walk rate keeps his opposing OBP (.308) below the MLB average (.320).

Through Fister’s first 20 MLB games, including 19 starts, he had a career mark of 6-6 and an 3.07 ERA. He worked 123 innings, allowing an opposing .240 AVG. He struck out 4.54 batters per nine innings and walked just 1.83 hitters per nine innings. Fister maintained a 2.48 K/BB ratio over his first 20 MLB appearances.

What can we make of these statistics? They basically tell us that, Fister was probably a little better over his first 20 MLB games. They worked roughly the same number of innings, but Fister struck out more hitters and held opposing hitters to a lower AVG. But, Fister’s numbers may also be misleading. As Mariner fans may recall, in 2010, Fister started the season hot, but he trailed off significantly during the second half. While Fister maintained an opposing AVG of .216 during the part of the 2010 season that fell within his first 20 career appearances, by season’s end, he had allowed a .277 opposing AVG.

Ultimately, the Mariners would be thrilled if Beavan could develop into a consistent middle-to-front-end starter. And, at 23 years old, there is still plenty of time for Beavan to grow. Like Fister, he has that bulldog mentality to go right after hitters. He is not afraid to pump the strike zone, as is reflected in his low base-on-balls ratio. Beavan’s mental makeup can take him just as far as any physical attributes he possesses. So, can Beavan develop into a Doug Fister type pitcher? His mentality tells us that he definitely could. Why not? But will he? We’ll see.