Moneyball and OBP in Oakland

This past weekend marked the long-anticipated release of Moneyball, the movie adaptation of Michael Lewis’ book detailing the surprising success of the 2002 Oakland Athletics—a roster that Oakland GM Billy Beane formed partly on “undervalued” statistics—namely, on-base-percentage (OBP).

As demonstrated in the film, Beane opted for the “Moneyball” strategy following the 2001 season, as the Athletics attempted to inexpensively fill the offensive voids left by the departures of Jason Giambi and Johnny Damon. Yet, because the Athletics traditionally fall near the bottom of the MLB in payroll, Beane was forced to find cheaper offensive production.

In 2001, the last season of Giambi and Damon in Oakland, the AL’s average OBP was .334. The A’s had five hitters with OBPs above the AL average (Giambi-.477; brother Jeremy Giambi-.391; Frank Menechino-.369; Eric Chavez-.338; Terrence Long-.335). The A’s were 3rd in the AL with a collective .345 OBP.

The Moneyball era opened with the 2002 season, and despite the loss of Jason Giambi and his unworldly OBP, the A’s team OBP fell only slightly, to .339 (5th in the AL), while the AL average dropped to .331. Of the eight A’s players who regularly played that season, six of them reached base at rates above the AL average (David Justice-.376; Scott Hatteberg-.374; Mark Ellis-.359; Miguel Tejada-.354; Chavez-.348; Jermaine Dye-.333).

The A’s won the AL West again in 2003, though their team OBP (.327) fell below the AL average (.333). Only four hitters had above-average OBPs (Erubiel Durazo-.374; Chavez-.350; Hatteberg-.342; Tejada-.336).

In 2004, the A’s narrowly missed the playoffs, but still won 91 games. The 2004 AL average OBP was .338, and the A’s had the fifth best in the AL at .343. Five A’s reached base at a higher frequency than the average AL hitter (Chavez-.397; Durazo-.396; Mark Kotsay-.370; Hatteberg-.367; and former-Mariner Eric Byrnes-.347).

The 2005 A’s won 88 games but missed the playoffs by seven games. Again, they finished fifth in the AL in OBP (.330) with six players reaching base above the AL average (Ellis-.384; Dan Johnson-.355; Bobby Kielty-.350; Bobby Crosby-.346; Jason Kendall-.345; Hatteberg-.334).

The A’s last made the playoffs in 2006, winning the West by four games with 93 wins. They were 7th in the AL in OBP (.340) and had six players reach base at above AL-average rates (Frank Thomas-.381; Nick Swisher-.372; Milton Bradley-.370; Kendall-.367; Chavez-.351; Marco Scutaro-.350). The A’s were ultimately swept in the ALCS by the Tigers.

2007 was the last season that the A’s finished among the top six teams in OBP (.338). They’ve only reached the .500 plateau once since 2006 (2010, 81-81). The last four years, the A’s have been toward the bottom of the AL in OBP: 13th (.318), 11th (.328), 9th (.324), and 12th (.311).

Does the recent trend indicate the A’s are moving away from the Moneyball approach showcased in the film? We witnessed the A’s dump one of their more successful Moneyball-esque players last year, Jack Cust, owner of a career .381 OBP in an A’s uniform and the highest A’s season OBP (.408 in 2007) since Jason Giambi left for New York.

The A’s will continue to suffer from financial woes so long as they play their homes games at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Over the past six seasons, the team had been no better than 12th in the AL (of 14) in attendance, finishing 13th twice and 14th twice. The A’s expect to hear from MLB very soon about a potential move to San Jose, where they’re hoping to build a new ballpark, generate greater revenue, and finally escape from their financial misery. But, with the Giants owning territorial rights to Santa Clara County, any move will be contentious.

The Effect of a Bean-Ball

On August 17th, former Mariner first-round draft pick, Brandon Morrow, threw a 97 mile-per-hour fastball high and inside to Mariner rookie, Casper Wells. Wells reacted, turning himself away from the pitch as best he could. Given the velocity of the pitch, though, Wells was unable to avoid the heater. The pitch glanced off his nose, requiring him to leave the ballgame.

Going into the game that day versus the Blue Jays, Wells was batting .280/.351/.516. Today, just over one month later, his numbers have declined to .237/.317/.442; and, he’s not even traveling with the team on the current road trip because he has felt sick and there is, according to Eric Wedge, “something going on with his head” requiring an MRI.

Since being hit in the nose by the Morrow fastball, a span of 18 games and 56 at-bats, Wells is batting just .125/.222/.250. He has hit just two homeruns, and struck out 23 times—over 40% of his at-bats.

It is possible that the slump may be attributed to opposing pitchers finally developing a more effective approach to beating Wells, now that he has played at the MLB level for a few months. Potentially of greater concern, though, is this: in the past, there have been hitters whose offensive production permanently declined following a hit-by-pitch to the head/face.

The most recent notable case study of offensive decline is David Wright. He was beaned by a Matt Cain fastball in August 2009. Mets fans will argue he has not hit the same since. Over his career, Wright has averaged 27 homeruns per season. In 2009, he hit just 10 homeruns, and now in 2011, he’s notched just 14. His OBP the past two seasons—.354 and .353—has been well below his career average of .381. Moreover, during his first four full seasons at the MLB level, David Wright never accumulated an offensive WAR (oWAR; wins-above-replacement value) below 5.4 (chronologically, beginning in 2005: 5.8; 5.4; 7.5; 6.7); but, over his last three seasons, he has not exceeded 4.6 (chronologically, beginning in 2009: 4.2; 4.6; 2.7).

David Wright’s production decline may not be entirely attributed to his being beaned in August 2009. But, many Mets followers seem to point to that incident as a turning point. Similarly, it may not be accurate to link Wells’ slump to his taking a Brandon Morrow fastball off the nose. Mariner fans hope that, in 2012, Casper Wells will look more like the guy we saw in August, with an OPS of .870, rather than the guy we have seen struggle thus far in September.

Previewing the AL West Stretch Run

It is now mid-September, and the last of the playoff stretch run is upon us. The closest contest in any of the MLB divisions right now is the AL West, where the LA Angels sit just 2.5 games behind the Texas Rangers with more than two weeks of baseball still to play.

Let’s take a look, first, at what the Ranger schedule looks like the remainder of the season. They have five series left to play, fifteen total games. Of those fifteen games, only three are played against a team that now has a record over .500. The remaining twelve games are against the Indians (3 games, 72-72), Athletics (3 games, 66-80), and Mariners (6 games, 61-85). Against these three teams the Rangers hold an astounding 27-9 (.750 winning percentage) record in 2011. Only six of remaining games for the Rangers are to be played in Arlington, and the Rangers are much better at home (46-29, .613 winning percentage) than on the road (37-35, .514 winning percentage).

The Angels, too, have a relatively cushy schedule the rest of the way. The Angels have 16 games remaining. They too play the Athletics (6 games, 66-80), and they also play Orioles (3 games), who have the worst record in the American League (58-87). The Angels then go to Toronto to take on the Blue Jays (4 games, 74-73) before returning home to finish off their season. Against the Athletics, Orioles, and Blue Jays, the Angels are a combined 13-12 (.520 winning percentage).

The final three games of the year will likely determine the AL West. That final series will see the Angels will host the Rangers. The season series between the AL West titans gives the Rangers a slight edge. The Rangers have taken nine games against the Angels this season, while the Angels have won seven. And, of the seven games played between these teams in Anaheim this season, the Rangers have won four. Neither team has a series swept against the other this in 2011.

For the sake of keeping baseball relevant—now that the NFL season has kicked off—let’s all hope that the Angels/Rangers race is within three games going into that finale series September 26-28, especially if aces like Jered Weaver and CJ Wilson are squaring off with the AL West Championship on the line.