Opening Day Post-Season Predictions: American League

Today marks the 2011 Major League Baseball’s Opening Day. The Mariners will kick off tomorrow in Oakland with Felix taking the hill against Trevor Cahill, he who won eighteen games and logged a 2.97 ERA in thirty starts last year. Speaking of Oakland, the A’s are my pick to win the AL West.

American League West: Oakland Athletics

Cahill leads a young Oakland A’s rotation that is among the best in baseball. Imagine playing a four-game set in Oakland and having to face Cahill, Brett Anderson (2.80 ERA over 19 starts), Gio Gonzalez (15 wins, 3.23 ERA in 33 starts), and Dallas Braden (3.50 ERA in 30 starts, including a perfect game). Add Andrew Bailey to the back end of their bullpen and you’ll likely have problems. Largely because the A’s pitching staff appears so good, the A’s will win the American League West. The Cliff Lee-less Rangers will surely hit, but the A’s will pitch. I’ll take pitching over hitting in this one.

American League Central: Minnesota Twins

The Twins will come back in 2011 to defend the AL Central titles they won in both 2009 and 2010. They will take the Central again this year. Ron Gardenhire always has his guys playing to the best of their abilities, and with Joe Nathan coming back after missing 2010 because of Tommy John surgery, and Justin Morneau cleared to play following a concussion that sidelined him last season, they should keep control of their division. The White Sox added Adam Dunn, and Paul Konerko is coming off a career year, but with recently-injured Jake Peavy beginning the season on the disabled list, and questions as to who will certain roles in their bullpen after the departure of Bobby Jenks, I’m not sold on the White Sox.

American League East: Boston Red Sox

A Red Sox squad that already has lots of star-power (think Youkilis, Pedroia, and Ortiz) added a number of impact players during the offseason, including LF Carl Crawford, 1B Adrian Gonzalez, and RP Bobby Jenks. And, as far as starting pitching is concerned, the Red Sox know they’ll get quality innings from Jon Lester, John Lackey, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz. Daisuke Matsuzaka will be the fifth guy in the rotation, and who knows whether he’ll ever be as effective as he was in 2008, or more like the inconsistent and repeatedly-hurt hurler of 2009 and 2010. But for a fifth starter, he’ll be okay, even if overpaid. Tim Wakefield and his knuckleball, of course, will be on call to fill in as needed. With the uncertainty surrounding the Yankees starting rotation after Andy Pettite’s retirement and the Yankees’ inability to lure Cliff Lee to the Bronx, the Red Sox appear to have the upper hand in the East.

American League Wild Card: New York Yankees

The Yankees still have the power of the Steinbrenner regime, and they still have guys named Sabathia, Jeter, A-Rod, Texeira, Granderson, Swisher, and Rivera. Any gaps in the roster will be filled as needed. For that reason, the Yankees will win the Wild Card.

Figgy’s Spring Training Track Record May Indicate a Good Sign

It’s no secret that, generally, Spring Training statistics mean nothing. For example, Mariner fans have watched Matt Tuiasosopo tear the cover off the ball the last few Springs, and never has his Cactus League offensive prowess translated to his regular season.

The Mariners’ Cactus League schedule wrapped up today, and so concluded Chone Figgins’ 2011 Cactus League season. In what may be an auspicious sign for Mariner fans, Figgins has experienced his best Spring, statistically, in stark contrast to last Spring.

In 2010, Figgins had a relatively poor offensive Cactus League season. He compiled a .254 AVG, .421 OBP, and .390 SLG for an OPS of .811. He struck out ten times in fifty-nine at-bats, and was caught stealing five times in eight attempts. It was his worst Cactus League season in terms of batting average, and near-worst in terms of his on-base and slugging percentages. He followed his offensive struggles in the Cactus League with offensive struggles throughout the regular season.

His 2011 Cactus League campaign was everything his 2010 campaign wasn’t. He hit far better this season and appears far more comfortable. This Spring, Figgy hit .396, with a .473 OBP and .521 SLG, for an OPS of .994, over 150 points higher than last Spring. Also, in eleven fewer at-bats than last Spring, he notched more hits, runs, total bases, RBIs, and stolen bases.

But, what may give hope to Mariner fans is that Figgins’ recent history demonstrates that, his regular season performance seems to follow his Cactus League efforts.

In 2009, when Figgy was an All-Star and received MVP votes as an Angel, he batted .380, with a .443 OBP and .535 SLG (.978 OPS). He then accumulated his best regular season stats offensively: .298 AVG, .395 OBP, .393 SLG (.789 OPS).

In 2007, another season in which Figgy received MVP votes, he hit .330/.393/.432 (.825 OPS); that .825 OPS is the highest of his career. Interestingly, during his 2007 Cactus League, Figgy logged his highest Cactus League OPS, at 1.114.

Ultimately, Figgins’ Cactus League statistics seem to indicate his regular season numbers. If so, Figgy’s outstanding Spring this year may be a sign of good things to come.

Why Ryan Langerhans Makes a Great 4th Outfielder

Today, Ryan Langerhans started in centerfield for the Mariners as they took on the Angels in Peoria. He had two hits, including a double off the wall in centerfield, raising his Cactus League average to .375.

As the battle for roster spots continues, Ryan Langerhans will again make a compelling case for making the ballclub out of camp as the 4th outfielder, a roster spot he’s occupied for the better part of the last two seasons.

He should earn that spot on the roster for at least six reasons.

First, he is capable of sitting for three or four days, then coming off the bench to pinch hit against a tough righty late in a game. He’s had nearly 100 pinch hit at bats over his eight-season career, so he’s experienced pinch-hitting in pressure situations.

Second, he’s also a very capable defender in the outfield, where he can play each of the outfield positions, as well as first base. While many reserve outfielders are strictly corner options (think Tui, Jack Cust, Mike Carp), Langerhans can play the corner spots as well as centerfield.

Third, Langerhans works counts and takes pitches. He walked 24 times in 132 plate appearances last season, logging a .344 OBP, despite a batting average below the Mendoza Line.

Fourth, he has potential to hit the ball out of the park. He’s hit thirty career bombs and four career pinch hit homeruns.

Fifth, Langerhans can steal a base, either when he gets on base himself, or when he replaces a teammate as a pinch-runner. Last year, he stole four bags in five attempts.

Sixth, and probably most importantly, Langerhans is no longer a prospect. He is what he is at this point in his career—a veteran role player. Teams don’t want young, developing hitters to take bench roles. Guys like Michael Saunders and Mike Carp need to get consistent at-bats. They can’t waste away on the bench five days a week, as they need to continue to develop as hitters, if not at the MLB level, then in Tacoma. Langerhans at thirty years old, can sit for days at a time.

For these six reasons, the Mariners should choose to carry Ryan Langerhans as their fourth outfielder. Of course, if he continues to hit well through the remainder of the Cactus League schedule, his presence on the roster should be a near guarantee.