2011 Projected Rotation: Who Will Eat Innings?

Yesterday, on KJR 950 AM, Jack Z discussed the Mariners projected 2010 starting rotation, and he stated that he hoped it would align like this:

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Jason Vargas
3. Doug Fister
4. Erik Bedard
5. Michael Pineda

Given the personnel available to the franchise, I would agree that this looks like the best possible configuration for 2010. But, it does raise a concern worth noting.

Of this group, Felix Hernandez is the only proven innings-eater.

Yes, Jason Vargas did have a great 2010, a season in which he pitched 192.2 innings (just over 6 innings per start) with an overall ERA of 3.78. But, prior to this past season, he’d never logged more than 100 innings at the MLB level. And, his numbers in the second half last year were significantly inferior to his first-half body of work: his first-half ERA was 3.09, in the second half it was 4.66. Additionally, his opposing batting average, OBP and SLG were all significantly higher in the second half. Certainly, this season the Mariners will be monitoring his body to see how it responds to his relatively heavy 2010 workload. While the Mariners undoubtedly hope Jason Vargas can offer the club close to 200 innings again this season, they’re also aware that his 190+ innings from last year may have a carry-over effect into this season. Don’t be surprised, then, if he suffers arm fatigue at some point this coming season.

Doug Fister, like Jason Vargas, had something of a break-out year this past season. He notched 171 innings in 28 starts—just over 6 innings a start. Yet, again, prior to last season, he had never gone more than 100 innings at the MLB level. And, remember, last year, he went to the disabled list in early June with shoulder fatigue. His season statistics reflect his struggles as the season wore on. For example, in April his ERA was 1.67, in May it was 2.95. From June through September, he did not have a month with an ERA below 4.34. Prior to the All-Star Break, he held a 3.09 ERA, and post-Break it ballooned to 5.09. Despite only pitching two more innings after the Break, as opposed to before it, Fister gave up 39 more base-hits and 20 more earned runs post-break. He lost effectiveness as the year wore on, and it may have been the result of lingering arm fatigue. Again, the Mariners will be watching Fister this season, monitoring how his body reacts to another full season starting at the MLB level.

Erik Bedard, who the team would like to slot as the fourth starter, hasn’t pitched in an MLB game since August 2009, and he hasn’t had a season of over 100 innings since 2007. The Mariners won’t want to push his body too hard coming off multiple arm surgeries. So, one shouldn’t expect him to be an innings-eater in the Mariner 2010 rotation.

Michael Pineda, who Jack Z hopes will emerge as the fifth starter in the rotation, has never thrown a pitch at the MLB level. He’s also never thrown more than 140 innings at any level in a single season. Again, the Mariners will act with great caution in monitoring his innings and his pitch counts to do all they can to prevent any arm troubles with their highly-touted prospect.

When starters can’t work deep into ballgames, or when they can’t make each of their scheduled starts, the remaining members of the pitching staff—in particular, the relief corps—pick up the slack. Last year, near the All-Star Break, Wakamatsu expressed concern as to how frequently he was going to Brandon League in the bullpen. League appeared in 41 games before the Break, before the Mariners scaled back his workload. By season’s end, League still made more appearances (70) and logged more innings (79) than any other season in his career.

This year would be no different. If Vargas/Fister/Bedard/Pineda can’t consistently work 6+ innings in ballgames, the bullpen will need to find ways to fill those final three innings. These innings will add up quickly, and with Shawn Kelley coming off arm surgery and young relievers like Dan Cortes filling out the bullpen, the Mariners will take great care to prevent further injury and major arm fatigue. Surely, in a rebuilding season like the one we expect in 2011, the team’s number one priority will be to do all it can to prevent the overworking of its young pitching staff.

Selling Seattle on Jack Cust

Today, the Mariners announced the acquisition of Jack Cust. They expect him to be the full-time DH. This likely means that the Mariners will not pursue Russell Branyan; presumably, the Mariners project Justin Smoak playing first-base, so Branyan will likely need to find work elsewhere. So now that the Mariners have essentially opted for Cust over Branyan, has our offense improved?

Over his time the past two seasons with the Mariners, Russell Branyan has consistently hit for power (46 HR; .508 SLG), and last year his OPS was the highest on the team (technically, tied with Mike Sweeney for the highest OPS, .802). Also, last year, he was, by far, the most significant Mariner power threat. He led the team with 15 HRs, despite starting the season in Cleveland and appearing in only 57 games with the Mariners.

Cust is a very similar hitter to Branyan. Yes, he strikes out a ton—so be patient. He led the AL in strikeouts three straight seasons (07-09), and yes he struck out in over a third of his at bats last season. He did, however, still bat .272 last season, with an OPS that would have been tops on the Mariners (.834). Cust is known as an all-or-nothing guy. While he will swing and miss, he will also walk a lot and hit a few into the seats. He has worked over 100 walks two different seasons (Figgins led the Mariners with 74 BBs last year) and maintains a career OBP of .378 (Cust would have led the Mariners last season as well when his OBP was .395. And, to add some perspective, Ichiro had a career OBP of .376).

For a team without a ton of financial wiggle-room, Cust comes at a relative bargain. He will earn $2.5 million this season. Branyan earned $1.5 last year, and would probably be seeking something higher this year, coming off another 25+ HR season. But, unlike Branyan, Cust does not have Branyan’s chronic back problems. Cust has never been placed on the DL, and he is three years younger than Russell, which may have factored into Jack Z’s considerations. Cust also logged just over 100 innings (105.1) in the outfield last year (13 games in LF, 3 in RF), committing one error. So, if Eric Wedge decides to, he may place Cust into the outfield and know he can keep Cust’s bat in the lineup during interleague play, or when he wants to find at-bats for other hitters at DH.

Finally, while Cust’s homerun totals may not rival Branyan’s (Cust hit just 13 last year), Cust did hit 25 or more HRs in three of the last four seasons. He bats left-handed, so Safeco Field shouldn’t significantly impact his offensive power production (in just over 90 career ABs at Safeco, Cust has 5 HRs) the way it sometimes does righties. Other than the Oakland Coliseum, Cust has played more games at Safeco (31) than any other ballpark. He owns a career .237 AVG, .359 OBP, and .423 SLG in those 117 plate appearances at Safeco. Moreover, one can expect his Safeco splits to improve as he becomes more comfortable hitting in the ballpark with greater regularity.

One thing to watch as Cust becomes the everyday DH is how well he hits lefties. His career offensive numbers against southpaws, like most left-handed hitters, are less impressive than his overall numbers (.225 AVG; .350 OBP; .372 SLG), though even his numbers versus lefties are still better than many Mariner hitters.

Ultimately, while the Jack Cust signing does not exactly trigger fanfare along Edgar Martinez Drive or a mad rush to the season ticket office, his acquisition does appear to improve the Mariner offense. No, it won’t improve the offense the way Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford would have; but, those guys cost far greater than Cust and the Mariners are rebuilding. Cust offers a low-cost alternative that may still pay significant dividends for a team that must find some way to get guys across the plate in 2011.

Comparing Mariner Cy Young Winners

After the MLB players’ strike ended in 1995, Randy Johnson won 18 games, hoisting the Mariners on his back, and leading the franchise to its first playoff appearance. He also received the first Cy Young award in Mariner history. This season, despite a dismal team effort, Felix Hernandez strung together an impressive season of his own, deservedly earning the second Cy Young award in Mariner history.

It has been fifteen years since the Big Unit won his Cy Young, so I went back to look at the numbers he put up that season in order to compare them to Felix’s numbers this year. Did one pitcher have a statistically-superior season?

Here are some of the core numbers to compare their Cy Young credentials:

Randy Johnson (1995): 18-2; 2.48 ERA; 214 IP in 30 starts; 6 CG; 3 Shutouts; 294 K; 1.045 WHIP; 6.7 H/9IP; 12.3 K/9IP; 4.52 K/BB ratio.

Felix Hernandez (2010): 13-12; 2.27 ERA; 249.2 IP in 34 starts; 6 CG; 1 Shutout; 232 K; 1.057 WHIP; 7.0 H/9IP; 8.4 K/9; 3.31 K/BB ratio.

With the exception of their winning percentage, which can be attributed to their offenses, their numbers are very similar. They both threw 6 complete games, and each led his league in ERA. Felix’s ERA was lower than the Unit’s, and Felix led his league in IP. Unit, however, did lead the AL in Ks, WHIP, K/9, K/BB, HR/9IP.

So, ultimately, had Randy Johnson put up his 1995 numbers in 2010, one may fairly argue that the Unit would have topped Felix in the Cy Young race. That being said, one cannot overstate what Felix did for a team that lost 101 games. Despite having no hopes of postseason play, he continued to post dominant numbers the entire season. Randy Johnson had something extra to play for—a playoff push.

Also, for what it is worth, one may weigh the fact that Unit pitched his home games in the band-box that was the Kingdome, while Felix enjoyed the more pitcher-friendly dimensions at Safeco Field.

Both Randy Johnson and Felix Hernandez, during their Cy Young years, put together exceptional seasons on the mound, and both were deserving of their Cy Young awards. While Randy Johnson played among a handful of Mariner legends in 1995, Felix was a one-man show this past year. And while there was not much on which Mariner fans could hang their hats this year, King Felix’s incredible season gave us reason to watch baseball in August and September.

The Big Unit should be a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, and the fact that Felix draws comparisons with him only offers credence to the high ceiling he still maintains. Remember, Felix is still only 24 years old and may have many more Cy Young awards in his future. At 24, the Unit was just breaking into the MLB in Montreal, trying to harness his delivery and find his mechanics.